There is no ignoring Brian Westbrook’s litany of injuries in recent years. But it’s not what it would appear to be on the surface.
Westbrook, who will reportedly visit the Broncos on Thursday (ESPN.com, NFL.com), has been defined the last three years as much by his myriad injuries as his performance on the field, which through 2008 remained at an elite level. But all the various leg injuries between 2006 and 2009 only sidelined him four games in that span.
His ability to play through pain is an underrated quality, and stands as part of the leadership dynamic in which he excelled. It would be cliché to write that Westbrook filled a similar role on Philadelphia’s offense as Brian Dawkins did on defense, but there are parallels.
The only injuries Westbrook couldn’t play through were concussions, which is why he missed twice as many games (eight) because of the two he suffered last season as the previous three-plus seasons combined. The reports last month that he passed a physical administered by the Rams are promising in this regard, but his recent history means that whatever team signs him will exercise extreme caution.
That being said, history shows that Westbrook can be of value, particularly if he transitions into a situational role — for which his previous experience makes him an ideal candidate. Think Larry Centers specializing in catching passes out of the backfield, Marcus Allen going over the top at the goal line or Herschel Walker doing whatever was asked; their pro careers were 14, 16 and 15* seasons, respectively.
(*Yes, I’m including his USFL years. Just because the league wasn’t as well-attended doesn’t mean the hits weren’t as punishing; after all, Reggie White and Sam Mills were USFLers.)
What’s more, Westbrook has amassed more than 35 percent of his yardage via receptions. This is a magic percentage for running backs since 1980 who’ve amassed more than 5,000 yards from scrimmage; on average, a runner’s career is 19.2 percent longer (11.0 years to 9.3) when more than 35 percent of his scrimmage yards are through the air.
This is one reason why Westbrook would fit well with the Broncos if they choose to sign him; he is one of only two active running backs with more than 35 percent of 5,000-plus scrimmage yards on receptions. The other? Career Patriot Kevin Faulk.
Westbrook visited the Redskins earlier this week. With them, he’d be become part of a veteran stable that already includes Larry Johnson, a back with the same kind of rush/receive skill sets. With the Broncos, Westbrook would be an example of a versatile back who could help mold Knowshon Moreno into the kind of running back his abilities and strengths indicate he can become — a multi-purpose threat. That’s what Westbrook did in the 2000s better than almost anyone else.
Since 2005, NFL running backs have compiled 117 seasons with more than 20 receptions and 150 carries. On average, these runners picked up a first down on 22.4 percent of their touches. Below are the top 10 (with two more in a tie for 10th). Westbrook and Jacksonville’s Maurice Jones-Drew are the only ones making multiple appearances on the list.
| 1ST DOWNS FOR RBs W/ 150+ CARRIES, 20+ CATCHES, 2005-PRESENT | ||||
| NAME | YEAR | TOUCHES | 1ST | 1ST PCT. |
| Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX | 2007 | 207 | 68 | 32.9 |
| Joseph Addai, IND | 2006 | 266 | 86 | 32.3 |
| Derrick Ward, NYG | 2008 | 223 | 67 | 30.0 |
| Larry Johnson, KC | 2005 | 369 | 110 | 29.8 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX | 2006 | 212 | 62 | 28.6 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX | 2008 | 259 | 74 | 28.5 |
| Edgerrin James, IND | 2005 | 404 | 115 | 28.5 |
| BRIAN WESTBROOK, PHI | 2006 | 317 | 90 | 28.4 |
| Marion Barber, DAL | 2009 | 240 | 68 | 28.3 |
| BRIAN WESTBROOK, PHI | 2007 | 368 | 104 | 28.3 |
| Jamaal Charles, KC | 2009 | 230 | 65 | 28.3 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG | 2009 | 184 | 52 | 28.3 |
| AVERAGE | 2005-09 | 286 | 64 | 22.4 |
| KNOWSHON MORENO, DEN | 2009 | 275 | 62 | 22.6 |
Sure, Westbrook’s concussion issues last year make him a gamble. But if he is healthy, the ninth-year veteran should have some reasonably productive years ahead of him and fits the McDaniels offense well. Westbrook would be a calculated gamble — and one worth taking.
I knew that MJD was a beast, but that list really shows how much of one.
Moreno’s numbers are consistent with a debate going on at BF right now, about how good or bad Moreno’s rookie year was.
I’m of the mindset that it’s worth taking a flyer on Westbrook. Not only can he help mentor Westbrook, as mentioned above, but also we don’t have a lot of healthy depth behind Moreno. Buckhalter and Arrington have a long history of injuries, so adding another veteran to the running back mix makes a lot of sense.
Not only does Westbrook provide depth, but if he’s healthy, he could bounce back with a productive year, even if only used in a 3rd down type role.
There’s two extremes to the Moreno debates I’ve seen on boards, heard on radio, etc. Reality is in between, as it tends to be.
For the most part, Moreno was in the middle of the curve (but slightly below the top) when compared with other backs who had 150+ carries (there were 31 such runners last year). His first-down percentage (for runs only) was 21.1; the average was 21.0. He fumbled a little less than average (one per 124 attempts; league average was one per 97) and had a slightly lower touchdown ratio (one per 35.3 attempts; league average is one per 29.7).
The per-carry average, however, needs work; 3.83 won’t cut it. (Remember how 4.0 per carry used to be the league standard? Like 1,000 yards, that’s passe’; the league average per carry for runners with at least 150 carries last year was 4.4.)
As for Westbrook, another parallel for him as a receiving-intensive back is Warrick Dunn, who had some strong bursts of effectiveness in his 10th, 11th and 12th years. Should Westbrook not have any concussion recurrence, there’s no reason why he couldn’t be as effective a situational guy in the next few years as Dunn.
Andrew, good stuff, thanks for the additional info.
If you get a chance, whether as another comment or new article, I would love to read your thoughts/analysis about how much of Moreno’s running woes can be blamed (for lack of a better word) on the offensive line.
That is a big point of debate on the forums. Trying to reconcile what appeared to be a line unable to get a good push, and that at times allowed penetration into the backfield, with the fact that Buckhalter had almost a 2 YPC higher average than Moreno, yet they both had roughly the same percentage of carries between the tackles and up the middle (someone else provided the inside/outside carry splits, so I haven’t independently confirmed that is accurate).
[...] week, we discussed the impact that Brian Wesbrook could have on the Broncos — and specifically, Knowshon Moreno — if Denver chose to sign him. A fullback’s [...]